EUR/USD is the most liquid and the most popular currency pair among the forex traders. Trading currencies can be exciting and lucrative. Its a great market because of the way politics affect the trends. Elections, strikes, and sudden developments, both good and bad, can lead to significant trading profits if you stand ready to trade the euro is a convenient currency because it encompasses the policies and the economic activity and political environment of a volatile but predictable part of the world: Europe. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the global currency markets at the moment.
Inflation is not good for any economy. Most central banks fight inflation by increasing or decreasing interest rates in the markets. In the United States, where the free-market approach and a usually vigilant Federal Reserve make more frequent adjustments on interest rates. France, Italy, and Germany, the largest members of the European Union (EU), normally operate under high budget deficits and tend to keep their interest rates more stable.
The general tendency of the Fed is to make the dollar trend for very long periods of time in one general direction. Here are some general tendencies of the euro on which you need to keep tabs aside from the technical analysis:
- The European Central Bank is almost fanatical about inflation, given Germanys history of hyperinflation in the first half of the 20th century and the repercussions of that period, namely the rise of Hitler. That means that the European Central Bank raises interest rates more easily than it lowers them.
- The European Central Banks actions become important when all other factors are equal, meaning politics are equally stable or unstable in the United States and Europe, and the two economies are growing. For example, if the U.S. economy is slowing down, money slowly starts to drift away from the dollar. In the past that meant money would move toward the Japanese yen; however, because the market knows that Japans central bank will sell yen, the default currency when the dollar weakens is often now the euro.
- The flip side is that the market often sells the euro during political problems in the region, especially when the European economy is slowing and the economy in the United Kingdom (UK), which often moves along with the U.S. economy, is showing signs of strength.
As a word of caution, its okay to form an opinion and have some expectations, but the final and only truth that should make you trade is what the charts are showing you. As usual, you want to closely monitor major currencies and the cross rates. The direction that counts is the one in which the market is heading.
It is always best to choose only two or three currency pairs and become a specialist in them. Two currency pairs that I would recommend for you are the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. Both these currency pairs are highly liquid and very popular among the currency traders. Fundamental analysis can help you determine the strong/weak currency pair. Use fundamental analysis to determine if USD is expected to lose value and EUR is expected to gain more strength that means that the currency pair EUR/USD is perfectly timed for swing trading. Use technical analysis to make the entry and exit decision. Combining fundamental analysis with the technical analysis can give you the edge as a forex trader. Sometimes there is a fundamental shift in the direction of a currency pair. As long as you are not following a currency pair like EUR/USD on the daily basis, you wont be able to understand what is happening.
After performing the fundamental analysis, the trader may be confident that the US Dollar is indicating overall weakness and the Euro is indicating overall strength for the coming six months.
What should be your next step as a position trader? The next step for the position trader would be to open a long position in EUR/USD pair keeping in view the overall strength of Euro and the weakness of US Dollar. This simultaneously provides the position trader with long Euro position and a short US Dollar position.
This combined trading position fulfills the fundamental outlook of the position trader on both the currencies. So the long term directional bias has been formed by the position trader on the basis of fundamental analysis.
So position trading depends on using fundamental analysis in identifying a profitable position in the currency market and then using technical analysis in setting up the actual trade. However, pinpointing the best time for the trade entry as well as setting risk managed control strategies is best accomplished by using technical analysis.
So the position trading uses fundamental analysis in pairing strength with weakness. Now this concept fits extremely well with the forex markets as all currencies are traded in pairs unlike the stock market or for that matter other financial markets.
Position trading with the strength/weakness model is the most logical fundamental method for approaching long term forex trading. Trading forex requires a directional commitment on two currencies for each trade, so position trading is ideal for forex trading.
You only invest in stocks that go up and down but two stocks can never be paired together in stock trading. You can buy different stocks to diversify your portfolio but can never pair two individual stocks the way you can pair two currencies in forex trading. Buying one currency because it looks like it will become stronger while simultaneously selling another currency because it looks like it will become weaker is a better way to trade as compared to stocks and other financial markets.
What should be your first step to identify a strong/weak pair? Your first step as a position trader should be analyze the Central Bank policy statements, economic growth factors of these countries, global economic news etc to identify the currency with the strongest positive future prospects and the currency with the strongest negative future prospects at a given point in time. You will have to do fundamental research and analysis on all major currency pairs as a position trader.
You will have to study all the major currencies like US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. Suppose you identify GBP and USD as the strongest loser currencies by performing fundamental analysis while EUR and CHF as the strongest gainer currencies in the foreseeable future. Possible currency pairs for position trading could be long EUR/USD, long CHF/USD, short GBP/EUR and short GBP/CHF.
In currency markets, price action never moves in a straight line and is never ever linear. It is always up and down with minor trends superimposed on a major general trend. Swing traders usually ride the minor trends while position traders ride long term general trends. You can enter the trades with the help of technical analysis and hold them as long as they move in the correct direction disregarding minor corrective swings and market noise in position trading.
Position trading maybe the most difficult method of approaching forex trading for the beginners! It requires a great deal of patience and faith in ones own analysis to weather the inevitable swings against the trading position. But if done properly it can be one of the most effective methods of extracting long term profits from the forex markets.
Lets first define what Technical Analysis is. Technical Analysis is the study of historical and ongoing price data through charts, price patterns and chart indicators. Charts display price in time intervals using bars and candlesticks.
Technical Analysis is based on a number of assumptions. The most important is that all available information is immediately impounded into the market prices of the currencies. The second assumption made is that prices always move in trends or patterns. The third assumption that is made is that history repeats itself. This means you can predict the future price action by studying the past prices.
Historical studies have shown that once a trend is in motion, it is most likely to continue rather than reverse it. Only a bigger force in the opposite direction can reverse a trend once set in motion. The more one studies chart patterns, the clearer it becomes that reading and interpreting chart patterns are more an art form than a skill in technical analysis.
Two charts are important in technical analysis. Bar charts and Candlesticks charts. Bar charts display price data in vertical lines that represents price action during a given time period. The tip at the bottom of a bar chart is the low for the period. The tip at the top is the high for the period. The open and close are represented by small horizontal dashes called tics. The tic to the left of the vertical line is the open. The tic to the right of the line is the close.
Candlestick charts are similar to bar charts in many ways but different in other ways. Candlestick charts were developed by Japanese rice traders. They are used extensively in technical analysis. Like the bar charts, the top of the vertical line represent the high. The bottom of the vertical line represents the low. However, the price action between the open and the close is represented differently by the use of candlestick bodies. A shaded body represents a lower closing price below a higher opening price. A hollow body represents a higher closing price above a lower opening price.
The price action that takes place above and below the body is referred to as tails or wicks. As a forex day trader, you may use any one of the 3, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60 and 180 minutes charts for technical analysis. As a swing and position trader, you may use a daily, weekly or a monthly chart. These charts all use the Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or the Eastern Standard Time (EST) depending on the software that your broker platform uses. But you can always adjust these times according to your local time.
While doing technical analysis, you need to understand markets patterns? You need to understand what are Uptrends? You should also know what downtrends are and what are sideway trends? Forex markets expand and retrace constantly. Currency prices may continue to expand for sometimes either upward or downward. It is the nature of the currency markets to surge then pause and retrace.
Trends in currency markets make a series of peaks and troughs as they move. An uptrend consists of a series of ascending peaks and troughs. Each peak higher than the last peak! Each trough lower than the last trough! A downtrend consists of a series of descending peaks and troughs. A sidways trend consists of a series of horizontal peaks and troughs. All peaks and all troughs almost on the same level indicate a sideways market.